Baseball Classics Statistical Accuracy
“Just finished replaying 1964 Yankees. I ended up 98-64. Their actual record was 99-63. Stats were pretty close also.”  — Mike Hamilton, Baseball Classics customer


Based on time-tested algorithms

Players actually perform as they did that MLB season

When Baseball Classics® was in the design stage back in 1985, there were 3 board game must-haves.

1. Easier, faster, and authentic MLB gameplay

2. Offer any MLB team from 1901 to present

3. Pinpoint statistical accuracy

This was a tall order. Of the hundreds of baseball board games ever created, none featured all 3 must-haves. We understand MLB fans expectations and needs. Fans want true realism, the opportunity to play their favorite MLB teams, and to enjoy games that are super simple and quick.

In 1985, Dean Patino, the Founder of Baseball Classics went to work in his Southern California apartment. He created a game centered around these non-negotiable principles which the baseball board game market didn’t offer. A task tall like the towering Reggie Jackson’s 1971 All-Star Game light tower roof-shot at Tiger Stadium.

When we say “pinpoint statistical accuracy”, we mean it!

No other sports fans love player and teams stats more than Major League Baseball fans. It was imperative to ‘hit it out of the park’ when designing a baseball board game where MLB players perform as they did that actual season.

We just don’t say it, we prove it.  Baseball Classics is the only baseball board game to accurately project the 2022 2020, 2019, and 2018 World Series winners to the very number of games won and within a mere 3 total runs scored between both series!  Neither Strat-O-Matic or APBA have done that or any others.

To do that, we began by selecting all the statistical categories needed for hitters and pitchers to mirror MLB players. We analyzed batting, pitching, bunting, stealing, base running, and — last but not least — fielding.

All these important statistical areas were taken into consideration during the game’s design. Our custom algorithms generate all our Baseball Classics player ratings. Each player result is based on hundreds of time-tested, mathematical equations to ensure incredibly high accuracy that compared to their actual season performance.

How we achieve highly accurate player outcomes

baseball classics diceBaseball Classics’ play system uses 3 traditional dice and a binary die. There’s plenty of play possibilities. Between a batter and pitcher, there’s at least 432 play possibilities!

For example, let’s say a player hit 1 Home Run in 432 plate appearances. That’s .00231481%. Yikes! It’s minuscule, but players can achieve this with a dice roll of 3 or 18. Baseball Classics accurately delivers player performance within less than 1% of a player’s actual outcome!

It’s incredibly rare, but say an MLB player hit 1 Home Run in 750 plate appearances in a season. That’s .00133333%. Can we accommodate that result? Yes! We can get within .00115741% of an outcome for any Result (e.g. Home Run, Walk, Popout, etc.) shown on a Baseball Classics player card.

Proof: delivering highly accurate MLB player performance

To illustrate how we go about this, lets use Baseball Classics 2022 Yordan Alvarez Standard Edition Player Card from the 2022 World Champion Houston Astros.  Our design goal was to translate hundreds of algorithms into a beautiful, colorful layout that’s easy to understand in a simple glance. We wanted to instantly convey whether an MLB player performance that season was good, bad, or ugly using our “traffic-highlighting” color-coded ratings.

As you can see, Alvarez had an outstanding season in 2022. It’s colorfully revealed in both his Batter Results (ODD & EVEN) and STATS columns. You’ll notice under the ODD column, a dice roll of 10 and in his EVEN column a dice roll of 5 are “HOME RUN“. 

Our algorithms automatically generated this and all other results. It’s the only way we could deliver every single MLB team and season from 1901 to present. That’s over 60,000 players! We’ve put them all in our Baseball Classics Cloud for MLB fans to print and play at any time. 

Now let’s see how Yordan Alvarez could smack 37 homers over a full season replay in Baseball Classics baseball game while facing pitching from the 2022 MLB season.

Using the 3 traditional dice aligned with two columns (ODD & EVEN) on 2022 Houston Astros Alvarez’s batter card, the probability of rolling a Home Run with a 10 is 6.25% (27 out of 432 total possible rolls) and a 5 is 1.3889% (6 out of 432 total possible rolls), thus 34 occurrences out of 432 rolls. His STATS column shows he has a total of 548 plate appearances (470 at bats plus 78 walks).  27 + 6 = 33

Based on our algorithms, Baseball Classics MLB 2022 pitcher cards shows HOME RUN occurs from a dice roll of 5 twice and 3 once (probability of 13 out of 432 possible rolls from 3 six-sided dice). Using the same math formula:

Therefore, with 548 dice rolls (PA’s = plate appearances by Alvarez) the probability is 36.26 HOME RUNS would occur. Here’s the math:

33 (Alvarez) + 13 (2022 MLB Pitchers) = 46 of 432 dice rolls would be a HOME RUN

432 total dice roll outcomes / 548 PA = .788

46 * .788 = 36.26 HOME RUN probability by Alvarez

Therefore, Yordan Alvarez would likely hit 36.26 HOME RUNS in a replay of his 2022 MLB Season performance when playing Baseball Classics, very close to his actual 37.

The Result possibilities shown on each and every Baseball Classics player cards are based on our time-tested Baseball Classics baseball game algorithms. Now you know why our game is statistically accurate and how MLB players will achieve outcomes based on their actual performance that season when you play!

Premium Edition: THE BEST statistical accuracy by any baseball board game ever!

Now that we’ve demonstrated why Baseball Classics delivers pinpoint statistical accuracy with our Standard Edition player cards, it’s time to let you know why our Premium Edition brings by far the most precise outcomes ever in any baseball board game!

With the addition (pun intended) of Real-Time Pitching, Baseball Classics had to engineer our gaming engineering to factor an incredibly high probability.  Why?  Simply because the number of pitches a pitcher may throw during a season.  What if a pitcher throws well over 3400 pitches in a season, yet hits only 1 batter?  That’s 1 divided by 3400 which equals 0.00029 (that’s two ten-thousandth, nine hundred-thousandth).

With our latest next generation gaming engine development, Baseball Classics can factor all the way to the probability of one millionth in the Premium Edition!  It’s rarely used, but when necessary all it takes is an extra 3-5 seconds of time to reach that with our dice.  No add-on cards or charts to look up!

We’ve incorporated new algorithms to factor up to that high of a statistical probability for Real-Time Pitching and player result outcomes such as Singles, Double Plays, etc.

No other baseball board game comes close to matching the precision of Baseball Classics statistical accuracy probability for outcomes throughout!  Strat-O-Matic, APBA, and all the others are no match.  We back up our statistical accuracy by demonstrating how our player ratings work and amazingly accurate World Series simulation projections.

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