BASEBALL CLASSICS Simulation: Will His 2022 New York Yankees Aaron Judge Card Belt AL Record 62 Home Runs?

by | Aug 14, 2023 | Blog

2022 Yankees Aaron Judge Baseball Classics Card Belt AL Record 62 Home Runs?

We Simulated It Over 11 Million Plate Appearances

As you and every MLB fan knows, in the 2022 MLB season New York Yankees, Aaron Judge broke the AL home run record with 62!

We thought you might want to not only see what his Baseball Classics 2022 card looks like, but see if he could repeat that amazing feat.

So we put together an Excel spreadsheet and loaded up the HOME RUN rolls on his Baseball Classics 2022 New York Yankees card (7, 10, and 18) plus the MLB average HOME RUN allowed by AL and NL pitcher’s card (roll of 9 is the 2022 Season MLB average as well as for either the AL or NL).

Aaron Judge had 696 plate appearances in 2022.

Thus, we created a large test simulation that contained 100 each of 696 plate appearances. 696 X 100 = 69,600 plate appearances. Then we created that test 16 times which is 69,600 X 16 = 1,113,600 plate appearances.

However, we didn’t stop there.

We then ran another, much bigger test simulation that contained those 1,113,600 plate appearances X 10 = 11,136,000 plate appearances.

How did Baseball Classics 2022 New York Yankees Aaron Judge next generation player card do?

With those 11+ million plate appearances he averaged 61.4 HOME RUNs per 696 plate appearances. Only off by .1 to reach 62 HOME RUNS!

Here’s one of the 11+M tests we ran, but if you choose, you can run it too.  You can download it here.

With our latest next generation gaming engine development, Baseball Classics can factor all the way to the probability of one millionth player results.  No extra dice, add-on cards, or charts to look up!

We’ve incorporated new algorithms to factor up to that high of a statistical probability for Real-Time Pitching and player result outcomes such as Singles, Double Plays, etc.

No other baseball board game comes close to matching the precision of Baseball Classics statistical accuracy probability for outcomes throughout like we do!  Strat-O-Matic, APBA, and all the others are no match.  We back up our statistical accuracy by demonstrating how our player ratings work and amazingly accurate World Series simulation projections.

BASEBALL CLASSICS: Player Cards Accuracy to the Millionth Percentile

Baseball Classics gives MLB fans 100% confidence they are playing any MLB Teams or Seasons they want that will generate statistically accurate outcomes just like they performed that season.

There’s no other MLB board game on the market that has ever done more rigorous testing and provided proof each and every time.

Enjoy Baseball Classics, order any MLB Teams or Seasons 1901-Present you want!

BASEBALL CLASSICS Simulation: DiMaggio 56-Game Hitting Streak

BASEBALL CLASSICS Simulation: DiMaggio 56-Game Hitting Streak

by | Aug 14, 2023 | Blog

BASEBALL CLASSICS Simulation: DiMaggio 56-Game Hitting Streak

We Determined How Long It Will Take To Ever Happen Again.

Have you ever wondered if 1941 New York Yankees, Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak is the most unlikely MLB record to break?

Baseball Classics tackles that question with an answer that will surprise even the most savvy of MLB fans…

Over the years, we’ve put Baseball Classics to the test like no other MLB board game company.

Just to name a couple recent examples, we’ve accurately simulated projections of the past 5 World Series (2022-2017). And demonstrated Baseball Classics 2022 Aaron Judge card will average nearly 62 record-breaking home runs tested with over 11 million plate appearances.

Baseball Classics takes on an improbable mission most MLB experts claim is the most unlikely single-season record to be broken.

Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak!

From May 15 to July 16, Joltin’ Joe hit .408/.463/.717 — against a group of pitchers that included four Hall of Famers — with 91 hits, 35 of which went for extra bases. Source: MLB

Grab a cup of “Joe”, read on to see how improbable this mission could ever be repeated…

Joe DiMaggio’s 1941 Season Hitting Streak and Season Stats

DiMaggio 56-Game Stats
The streak began May 15, 1941 against the Chicago White Sox and ended  July 17th, 1941 vs. the Cleveland Indians.  Here’s Joe DiMaggio’s game-by-game batting log during that time provided by Baseball Almanac.

DiMaggio finished the 1941 MLB season with the New York Yankees a .357 batting average; during his 56 consecutive game hitting streak he hit .408.

For this simulation, we used Baseball Classics next generation real-time game cards to see what the probability would be for Joe DiMaggio to accomplish this mighty feat.

We generated a Baseball Classics (Standard Edition) card for him based only on the stats he compiled during his streak.  Next, we only used the stats of the pitchers he faced, when he faced them.

Then we input those stats into Baseball Classics next generation real-time gaming engine to generate two player cards; one for Joe DiMaggio during his streak and the other based on the statistical accumulation of pitchers he faced during his streak.

How We Setup The Simulation

Though Joe DiMaggio finished the 1941 MLB season with the New York Yankees a .357 batting average; during his 56 consecutive game hitting streak he hit .408.

For this simulation, we used Baseball Classics next generation real-time game cards to see what the probability would be for Joe DiMaggio to accomplish this mighty feat.

We generated a Baseball Classics (Standard Edition) card for him based only on the stats he compiled during his streak.  Next, we only used the stats of the pitchers he faced, when he faced them.

Then we input those stats into Baseball Classics next generation real-time gaming engine to generate two player cards; one for Joe DiMaggio during his streak and the other based on the statistical accumulation of pitchers he faced during his streak.

Baseball Classics 1941 DiMaggio 56-Game SE Card1

Here’s Joe DiMaggio’s 1941 New York Yankees Baseball Classics produced based on the stats from his 56-game hitting streak.

There are 3 key areas to take notice of:
1.  Upper right corner batter icon (uses 1 batter/pitcher die)
2.  ROLL column (uses 4-six sided dice)
3.  RESULT column (hits color-coded in green)

For Joe DiMaggio to record a hit on this card, it takes dice rolls would need to be showing the batter icon on the batter/pitcher die shows and six-sided dice ROLLs with a hit in his RESULT column in 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 17, 18, 20, or 23.

The other way for Joe DiMaggio to record a hit is off the Baseball Classics pitcher’s card we produced.  We did this using the stats of the pitchers he faced, when he faced with our Baseball Classics next generation real-time game engine.  It’s a hit whenever the pitcher icon on the batter/pitcher die shows and the six-sided dice ROLLs with a hit in the RESULT column in 4, 5, 7, 10, 18, 19, 23, or 24.

Our simulation was based on 247 plate appearances using 1 batter/pitcher iconic die and 4 six-sided dice for each game he played.  Thus, if he had 4 plate appearances in a specific game, he had no more or less in that game simulation.

Probability According To Experts

Before we share the results, first, here’s what many MLB experts and pundits have said about the possibility of anyone ever achieving this remarkable accomplishment by Joe DiMaggio in 1941.

Calculating the Odds: Joe DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak by Peter Goodrich and Bob Brown (SABR – Society for American Baseball Research)  “What were his chances of hitting safely in 56 straight games? .82156, or about .000016”

More Thoughts on DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak by Jay Mendelsohn and Edward Beltrami (SABR – Society for American Baseball Research)  “This is not to say that an unusual streak cannot occur by chance alone but that the odds of this happening are minuscule (about once in 10,000 seasons)”

DiMaggio’s Bound To Fall by Mike Celizic NBC News  “I’m in a minority on this one, most observers — expert and amateur alike — consider DiMaggio’s streak to be the most unassailable in baseball.”

“Total fantasy; no way this is happening.” (on any player breaking hitting in 56 straight MLB games)
Tom Verducci

American Sportswriter, Sports Illustrated

Last, but not least, here’s one more “expert” who has first hand knowledge on the possibility of a MLB player reaching a 56-game hitting streak.

“I don’t think any record is unbreakable, including hitting in 56 straight. Heck, I’m sure there were people back in my day that thought Sisler and Keeler’s records were untouchable, too.”

— Joe DiMaggio in 1999 at age 84

Baseball Classics 1941 56-Game DiMaggio Simulation Results

 Each simulation ran based on 247 plate appearances for each 56-game “season”.  If that season did not result in a 56-game hitting streak, it ran another until it was accomplished.  We ran a dozen simulations, with them averaging nearly 1 million seasons played before a 56-game hitting streak occurred.

Baseball Classics simulations showed the probability of DiMaggio accomplishing his 56-game hitting streak is .000012, or once in every 999,283 MLB seasons.  Yes, our simulations show it is that rare.

Also, Baseball Classics simulations averaged the exact 91 hits (90.8) compared to his actual 91.  This once again, demonstrates pinpoint Baseball Classics player card ratings accuracy that deliver realistic statistical outcomes just like they performed that season.

You can order any Baseball Classics MLB Teams and/or Seasons 1901-Present here.

Is it possible for DiMaggio to have hit in 56-consecutive games if he batted his season average of .357?  Yes, you’ll see that in Simulation number 10 when he batted .350 (78 Hits/223 ABs). Possible, but it took over 1 million seasons.

 The most hits DiMaggio had was in Simulation 5 when he had 103 hits for a blistering.461 average.  Note, the final 24 games of his actual streak, DiMaggio slashed  .461 (47 Hits/102 ABs).

Run Your Own Simulations

Other articles we researched used mathematical computations to calculate the probability of this rare event.

We used our next generation real-time gaming engine (based on many algorithms) to generate the statistical probability in the form of dice rolls to determine when he would get a hit off his Baseball Classics card or the accumulative rated pitcher card of the pitchers he faced.

Then we simulated dice rolls to see which ones were hits (against either card) during the exact number of plate appearances DiMaggio had game-by-game.

As stated, it took on average almost 1 million seasons to show Joe DiMaggio repeating this against those pitchers.  With the probability of this happening being .000012.  Baseball Classics player cards RESULT ratings in our simulation averaged the exact 91 hits DiMaggio had (90.8) during his streak.

You can run your own testing if you’d like to use the player card ratings we provided and used for our Baseball Classics simulations.  Simply create a spreadsheet and use random numbers to generate the dice rolls (remember to generate each of the six-side die independently before summing them) against the DiMaggio .408 hitting streak player card and pitching RESULT ratings of those he faced we provided in this article.

We also provided a link of his 56-game hitting streak above from Baseball Almanac so you can mirror the exact number of plate appearances for each game.

Conclusion: MISSION (HIGHLY) IMPROBABLE

There were many close calls to ending the streak including 3 of the 56 games where DiMaggio only recorded 2 at bats (due to walks or one 5-inning game).  Just like The Yankee Clipper graciously tipped his hat after clubbing a home run, we tip our cap to his unfathomable accomplishment! 

No matter who’s statistical or simulation you believe, they all underscore this event is one for the ages.

If you’re a SABR fan, then you’ll appreciate this Baseball Classics simulation based on cards generated by our next generation real-time gaming engine as we both show the probability of this ever happening in the range of .0001.  However, SABR shows once in 10,000 seasons, we show once in about 1,000,000.

As highly improbably as it was to repeat this feat by DiMaggio facing overall ratings against the same pitchers he faced in our simulations, imagine how much more difficult it would have been in today’s MLB bullpens filled with specialists.

With that, how many hitters will bat at a clip of .350 or better during 56 consecutive games, let alone .408 or better?  Even if 1 or maybe more do, the odds are stacked against them to accomplish hitting in 56-games straight unless it’s a long, long time from now.

Best Baseball Books All-Time

Best Baseball Books All-Time

by | May 29, 2023 | Blog

Best Baseball Books All-Time

Baseball Classics Top Recommendations For Your MLB Book Library

The Baseball 100

Click To View On Amazon

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * Winner of the CASEY Award for Best Baseball Book of the Year

“An instant sports classic.” —New York Post * “Stellar.” —The Wall Street Journal * “A true masterwork…880 pages of sheer baseball bliss.” —BookPage (starred review) * “This is a remarkable achievement.” —Publishers Weekly (starred review)

A magnum opus from acclaimed baseball writer Joe Posnanski, The Baseball 100 is an audacious, singular, and masterly book that took a lifetime to write. The entire story of baseball rings through a countdown of the 100 greatest players in history.

The Baseball 100 treats readers to the whole rich pageant of baseball history in a single volume. Chapter by chapter, Posnanski invites readers to examine common lore with brand-new eyes and learn stories that have long gone unheard. The epic and often emotional reading experience mirrors Posnanski’s personal odyssey to capture the history and glory of baseball like no one else, fueled by his boundless love for the sport.

Engrossing, surprising, and heartfelt, The Baseball 100 is a magisterial tribute to the game of baseball and the stars who have played it.

Why Baseball Classics Recommend It

“It’s the best MLB book we’ve read that provides in depth insights into the top rated iconic players of all-time.”

The Baseball 100

Why Baseball Classics Recommend It

“One-of-a-kind graphical perspective on the history of MLB every fan will love reading.”

The Comic Book Story of Baseball

The Comic Book Story of Baseball: The Heroes, Hustlers, and History-Making Swings (and Misses) of America’s National

Click To View On Amazon

This graphic novel steps up to the plate and covers all the bases in illustrating the origin of America’s national pastime, presenting a complete look at the beginnings (both real and legendary), developments, triumphs, and tragedies of baseball. It also breaks down the cultural impact and significance of the sport both in America and overseas (including Japan, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic), from the early days of America to the flying W outside Wrigley Field in 2016.

Featuring members of Baseball’s Hall of Fame and modern day stand-outs—including Cy Young, Babe Ruth, Jackie Robinson, Hank Aaron, the 1930s New York Yankees, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, the 2016 Chicago Cubs, and more—The Comic Book Story of Baseball spotlights the players, teams, games, and moments that built the sport’s legacy and ensured its popularity.

The Glory of Their Times: The Story of the Early Days of Baseball Told by the Men Who Played It

Click To View On Amazon

“Easily the best baseball book ever produced by anyone.” —Cleveland Plain Dealer

“This was the best baseball book published in 1966, it is the best baseball book of its kind now, and, if it is reissued in 10 years, it will be the best baseball book.” — People

From Lawrence Ritter, co-author of The Image of Their Greatness and The 100 Greatest Baseball Players of All Time, comes one of the bestselling, most acclaimed sports books of all time.

Baseball was different in earlier days—tougher, more raw, more intimate—when giants like Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb ran the bases. In the monumental classic The Glory of Their Times, the golden era of our national pastime comes alive through the vibrant words of those who played and lived the game. It is a book every baseball fan should read!

Why Baseball Classics Recommend It

“Reading these great MLB throwback players in their own words will take you back to those times and fascinating experiences.”

The Glory of Their Times

Why Baseball Classics Recommend It

“Truly a classic presentation of recommended team lineups with reasons why for each  and every MLB player.”

Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Lineups

Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Lineups

Click To View On Amazon

You love to argue about the game and its players, delving into baseball history and lore in search of support for your points of view. You’ll find plenty of food for thought — and argument! — in Rob Neyer’s Big Book of Baseball Lineups.

Neyer presents a series of lineups for each franchise — from the All-Time and the All-Rookie to the All-Bust and the Traded Away. In notes, sidebars, and essays, he explores the careers of players both famous and obscure. The book includes information on all thirty current teams, as well as a special section covering legendary clubs like the Brooklyn Dodgers and Washington Senators. Neyer’s Big Book is an unparalleled reference for settling the debates that arise every day in the lives of baseball fans.

The Love of Baseball

Click To View On Amazon

The Love of Baseball takes readers on a stroll through baseball history, with unforgettable stories with historic black & white plus color photos that illustrate and bring baseball to life.

  • Chunky 320 page hardcover book features today’s baseball superstars and record-breakers with yesterday’s heroes.
  • Fascinating stories, as well as entertaining quotes, help readers get to know the greatest players of all time.
  • Includes profiles of baseball’s greatest players, ballparks, and broadcasters; interesting facts and statistics; memorable game moments; and much more. 

A must for any baseball fan, The Love of Baseball unfolds the sport’s rich and colorful history.

Why Baseball Classics Recommend It

“The title says it all!  We love this book and any MLB fan will too.  Plus, you can’t beat the price, it’s a must have for any baseball library.”

The Love of Baseball

Why Baseball Classics Recommend It

“This book digs deep into the why for each ranking with hard to argue reasoning with player stories for the ages.”

Baseball Dynasties

Baseball Dynasties: The Greatest Teams of All Time

Click To View On Amazon

It’s a debate nearly as old as the sport itself. Sure, there have been plenty of great baseball teams–but which was the best ever? While it seems like an unwinnable argument, the authors of Baseball Dynasties have risen to the challenge.

They took the top fifteen teams of the twentieth century, ran them through rigorous statistical analysis, and threw in some good old-fashioned opinion in their quest to determine, definitively, who was the greatest team in the history of baseball. Looking at continued brilliance over time (no one-season wonders allowed), Hall of Famers on the roster, offensive and defensive production, performance in the postseason, and numerous other tangibles and intangibles, Eddie Epstein and Rob Neyer put each team under the microscope–and picked a winner.

Stay tuned as we will be adding more all-time great baseball books from our recommended library

How Do APBA Player Cards Compare To Baseball Classics?

by | May 28, 2023 | Blog

How Do APBA Player Cards Compare To Baseball Classics?

“Are you serious that you charge $10 a team for each season? Apba charges $3.00 a team.”

 

Every once in a while we get an email with a comparison question to APBA or one of our other competitors.  This question is about a comparison to Baseball Classics Premium Edition MLB team player cards.  Of course not all MLB board games are created equally…

BASEBALL CLASSICS VS. APBA

MLB Player Card Comparison

DESIGN

Baseball Classics: Fully Color-Coded Iconic ratings

APBA: Monochromatic ratings

STATISTICAL CATEGORIES

Baseball Classics has 21 color-coded statistical categories including Sabermetrics

APBA has 10 monochromatic statistical categories

PLAYER RATINGS

Baseball Classics: Plain English Baseball Terms (SINGLE, HOME RUN, Groundout, etc.)

APBA: Alphanumeric coded

STATISTICAL OUTCOME ACCURACY

Baseball Classics: Within one-millionth (6X6X6X6X2) dice roll combination possibilities

APBA: Uses “66” (6X6) dice roll combination possibilities

Real-time GM Advisor (recommends to who to play when, where)

Baseball Classics: Included on every player card

APBA: Does not have

Real-time pitching (balls, called strikes, foul balls, etc.)

Baseball Classics: Included on every player card

APBA: Does not have

Real-time Fielding (fielding range, arm strength)

Baseball Classics: Included on every player card

APBA: Does not have

vs. lefty/righty

Baseball Classics: Two-sided players card ratings with vs. Lefty/Righty & vs. Overall

APBA: One-sided player card ratings with only vs. Overall

ANY MLB TEAMS or seasons 1901-Present & all-time greats

Baseball Classics: Yes

APBA: Limited

PRINTED OR DOWNLOAD

Baseball Classics: Yes

APBA: Print only

Many other customers who made the switch from APBA or Strat-O-Matic are serious by purchasing Baseball Classics. Yes, we are serious.

And that’s just the player card difference! We don’t have bloated game play charting like APBA or game board, etc. $10/team is an excellent value when compared to APBA.

However, we believe everyone should choose to play the MLB board game they feel is best for them. If you want to pay $3/team for APBA with their limited, old 1950’s same style of play, we wish you the best. Meanwhile, our customers love playing Baseball Classics and find it worth it for those and many other reasons we could add above.

Side-By-Side Player Card Comparison

BASEBALL CLASSICS FRONTSIDE

BASEBALL CLASSICS BACKSIDE

APBA FRONTSIDE

APBA BACKSIDE

Close Up Look At Baseball Classics Premium Edition

Of course you make the call for which player cards you’d rather manage and play for your strategic MLB board game play.

Here’s a link to APBA’s website if you want further information about their game and here’s a link to learn more about Baseball Classics Premium Edition and Baseball Classics online store.

Whichever you prefer, enjoy many years of playing the greatest game ever invented, Major League Baseball!

How To Steal A Base Like Lou Brock

How To Steal A Base Like Lou Brock

by | Nov 14, 2022 | Blog

To some he was known as the “Base Burglar”.

To others he was “The One That Got Away”.

For 8 years, he was the all-time leader in single-season stolen bases, a record that had stood for 12 years.

For 14 years, he was the all-time leader in career stolen bases, a record that had stood for 49 years.

He will always be one of the greatest base stealers and baseball players of all time: Lou Brock.

Besides the great Rickey Henderson, who eventually broke both of Brock’s amazing records, virtually no one else could swipe a bag like this all-time great Hall of Fame player.

So how did Lou Brock steal so many bases? Next we break down just how Brock was able swipe bags with such great success.

With some help from former articles published in 1974 by Sports Illustrated, (the year Brock broke the single season record) and a retrospective by the St. Louis Dispatch in 2014, we’ve pieced together HOW TO STEAL A BASE LIKE LOU BROCK.

THE INCEPTION OF A LEGEND Brock started with the Chicago Cubs in 1961, but after a few frustrating seasons, the team traded him to St. Louis in 1964. It was this change of scenery that helped Brock begin to embrace his true potential as a base stealer.

The St. Louis Dispatch article notes, “But after coming to the Cardinals in an infamous 1964 trade, he was persuaded by manager Johnny Keane to make the most of his disruptive speed.”

The nudging of Keane combined with the motivation to prove his former organization wrong about their doubts about his capabilities, Brock went all-in, using his speed to steal as many bases as possible in order to help his team win.

In 1964, after his trade from Chicago, Brock became a key component in helping the Cardinals storm back to win the Pennant and go on to win the World Series.

 

PREPARATION Not only did Brock have natural speed, talent and instincts, but he was an incredibly studious player. In an era before players would regularly watch film and study their opponents, Brock looked for every advantage he could gain.

On one occasion, after getting on first base, Brock broke to steal second base on the first pitch the next batter in the lineup saw. This was highly unusual at the time. Pitcher Doug Konieczny, who was on the mound pitching recalls, “I figured Brock would at least wait to see my pickoff motion and my delivery a few times.” Upon hearing this, Brock replied, “I saw them both during batting practice.”

“He was among the first to use a stopwatch, timing pitchers’ motions, watching pregame warm-ups to time the opposing catcher’s throw to second base.”

Brock even went as far as using his own, personal 8mm camera to film pitchers so that he could study their windups and pickoff moves. Watch as Brock describes pioneering using film to study pitchers, in this case, against Don Drysdale (length: 2 minutes, 8 seconds).

HOW TO STEAL A BASE LIKE LOU BROCK

 

THE KEY For Brock, the art of the stolen base was about more than simply being quick. As fast as the “wheels” of his feet could move him were the “wheels” turning in his mind, which were always reading situations and discerning the perfect moment to run.

Brock believed that there was something even more crucial than getting to the next base. The key to his philosophy was this:

“The most important thing about base stealing is not the stealing of the base,” Brock says, “but disturbing the pitcher’s concentration. If I can do that, then the hitter will get a better pitch to swing at and I will get a better chance to steal.”

HIS STRATEGY While the casual observer may guess that a base stealer simply tries to take a big lead, and sprint as fast as they can to the next bag, hoping to slide in safe, Brock’s strategy reveals a complex and multi-layered process.

1) He changes his approach to confuse pitchers

In the 1974 SI article, it’s noted just how many variations Brock would use when getting ready to steal.

“At times Brock stands four or five steps off the base and rests his hands against his knees. At times he takes the same lead but puts his hands on his hips. Occasionally he fakes a takeoff for second. Sometimes he stands motionless on the base path, trying to lure the pitcher into a false sense of security. And he might stand oh-so-casually on the base itself.”

To Brock this helped, “minimize detection of my plans.” He argues that since a pitcher’s motion is mechanical and therefore always the same, his more fluid approach would always give him a decided advantage.

2) He reads the situation

Being one of the most prolific base stealers of all time gave Brock the permission to run at his own discretion. Therefore, one of his distinct advantages was never having to waste time watching the coaches for signs. He always had the perpetual “green light”. Brock explains that this helped him to focus on reading the game situation: “I try to tap in on the pitcher’s thinking to be aware of how he is setting up the hitter—whether the situation calls for a strike, for example, or a curveball in the dirt.”

3) He gets in his opponents heads

Brock was also a master of the psychological side of the game. He knew exactly how to get insides the heads of his opponents and ruffle their feathers.

Former teammate Ted Sizemore saw firsthand many times how Brock’s gamesmanship would affect their opponents:

“He’d come on the field and yell at them, ‘I’m going tonight, I’m going, “And they would get all tensed up and say, ‘Yeah, well I’m going to throw you out,’ among other things.“They got so intent on throwing Lou out that they would get out of their normal habits. I saw a number of catchers throw great strikes all the way to the center fielder, because they were trying to throw it so hard.”

TAKING A LEAD OFF OF FIRST BASE Another key part of his approach was how to take a lead off of first base. So how did Brock know how far off the bag he could venture? His game preparation went as far as pre-marking his spot!

“On artificial infields Brock sets the base-path edge of the rug as the point of his maximum lead. On natural infields he kicks an indentation with his spikes before the game and uses that as a marker.”

13 STEPS With the appropriate lead from the bag, Brock would begin a highly calculated process, one that he perfected over dozens of years and hundreds of stolen base attempts.

When he leaves first Brock moves his left foot over his right—”that’s automatic”—and 13 steps later he is sliding into second.

With those first steps taken, Brock is now moving at an all out sprint. Opposed to other base stealers who would try to get as big a lead off first base as possible, Brock helped to establish the “rolling start”. This extra bit of momentum helped to carry him forward into his sprint.

Now running, Brock stays tall.

“I stay up as long as possible and make my slide as short as possible,” he says.

A short slide helped him to stay as fast as possible for as long as possible. Even after sliding, he finished his movement with an intentional final action to agitate the fielder.

“He slid at the last instant, left foot extended, all that velocity crashing into an anchored base and an anxious fielder. He then popped up to disrupt the tag or advance on a poor throw.”

WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM HIS FRIENDS Base stealing is virtually a one-man show. But Brock was smart enough to involve his teammates in his base stealing attempts to gain even milliseconds that could help him gain a sliver of an advantage. If pitchers and catchers didn’t have enough to worry about with Brock on first base, they would then receive additional diversion from one of Brock’s teammates in the batter’s box.

“Sizemore stood far back in the batter’s box, forcing catchers to back up, buying Brock additional fractions. On the jump, Sizemore often swung late or swiped a fake bunt, anything to distract a frantic receiver.”

SUMMARY It’s fair to say that Brock’s incredibly smart baseball acumen was just as important as his physical tools in helping him to become one of the greatest base stealers of all time. Of course, Brock himself never technically considered himself a player who steals a base.  “I don’t steal the base as much as I take it. To me the word steal contains the element of surprise and I don’t surprise anyone when I head for second base. The other clubs would be surprised if I didn’t.”

Brock’s quip was all too true!

Mets pitcher Harry Parker summed it up best when he said, “It’s like trying to keep water from going over the dam. You know what’s coming, but you’re powerless.”

 

Leifer, Neil. “Their at Work: Base Stealer Lou Brock.” Sports Illustrated Jul. 22 1974. www.si.com Web. 16 Oct. 2018. St. Louis Dispatch article: O’Neil, Dan. “40 years ago Lou Brock committed grand larceny.” St. Louis Dispatch Sep. 2014. www.stltoday.com Web. 16 Oct. 2018. [VIDEO] Brock breaking the stolen base record

2020 MLB World Series Accurately Projected

2020 MLB World Series Accurately Projected

by | Oct 28, 2020 | Blog

2020 World Series Projections!

Baseball Classics Accurately Projects
MLB World Series Winner 3RD Consecutive Year!
.

BASEBALL CLASSICS® GAME-BY-GAME PROJECTION

Baseball Classics® next generation board game simulated all the action playing real-time in the MLB ballparks of each home team based on the actual starting pitchers and lineups submitted to MLB by both teams for the 2020 MLB World Series.  The simulation for each game was played using Baseball Classics 2020 Season Premium Edition Lefty-Righty Player Card Boxed Game Edition with Real-Time Pitching and Lineup Advisor (shipping mid November) where virtually anything can happen in an MLB game, both featuring next generation color-coded ratings.

The projections were emailed to thousands of MLB fans prior to each 2020 World Series game conclusion.

Baseball Classics® accurately projected the 2020 World Series winner Los Angeles Dodgers, exact number of total hits (35) and within 1 of the total runs scored (24 vs. 25) by the Dodgers (in the first four games in a sweep).

Our simulation projected a sweep for Los Angeles and this nearly came to be.  In Game 2 the Dodgers surrendered 2 home runs to Rays, Brandon Rowe accounting for 3 of the 6 runs they scored, the difference in the game.    Lowe went on to only have 1 more hit in the Series going 3 for 24; all 3 hits were home runs.  The Dodgers were within 1 strike of winning Game 4 five times, but Kenley Jansen couldn’t close it out.

Our 2020 World Series simulation was within 1 run of accurately projecting the total number of runs the Dodgers would score in the first 4 games.

Want to play a FREE full trial of Baseball Classics next generation game?  Click here to download yours instantly!

Once again, it is more proof on the amazing accuracy and true realism Baseball Classics® next generation board games provide MLB fans to enjoy!

2020 WORLD SERIES
Projection Summary by Baseball Classics

2020 Projected World Series Games: Dodgers 4  Rays 0
2020 Actual World Series Games:   Dodgers 4  Rays 2

Dodgers Runs Projected (in first 4 games) 24 vs. Actual 25
Average Runs Projected vs. Actual Dodgers 6/5.3, Rays 3/1.25
Dodgers Hits Projected (in first 4 games) 35 vs. Actual 35

 

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[Simulated Results]
Baseball Classics World Series Game 1
Rays at Dodgers

The lineup submitted by the Rays attempted to insert some power while sacrificing fielding.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers fielded their usual starters.  Find out if the move by Tampa propelled them to a win or cost them with the glove!

Play Ball!

Kershaw came out sharp whiffing all 3 batters including a caught looking in the top of the 1st.  Like Kershaw, the Dodgers lineup came out ready to strike!  Mookie Betts drew a leadoff walk followed by a scorching 2-bagger by Corey Seager.  Betts raced around home and scored as Tampa attempted to throw him out, but the ball was cut off and nailed Seager trying to take 3rd!

End of 1, Dodgers 1, Rays 0 

The lead would not last long as clean-up hitter Hunter Renfroe hit a deep drive off Kershaw to tie the score at 1!  With one out Wendle hit a single, but was forced out and Kiermaier struck out to end the Rays half of the 2nd.

End of 2, Tied at 1

Tyler Glasnow settled down and was mowing down Dodgers.  Good hitters such as Turner, Muncy, Will Smith, Taylor, Betts and Seager all fell victim to either called strike 3 or taking a big cut and missing.  Though when LA catcher Austin Barnes took his second look at Glasnow in the bottom of the 5th with two out and nobody on, he tagged one over the wall to put the Dodgers back on top!

End of 5, Dodgers 2, Rays 1

Clayton Kershaw put it in cruise control mode through 7 strong innings while clinging to their slim 1 run lead.  Then the game suddenly turned in the home half of the 7th. Glasnow lost Chris Taylor on a full count with a walk to start things off.  He was pulled in favor of Fairbanks out of the bullpen.  He promptly got powerhouse Job Pederson to hit a ground ball to 2nd baseman Brandon Lowe, but he booted it for the second error of the game for Tampa.  Barnes singled to load the bases for Betts.  However, a wild pitch brought in the 3rd Dodger run.  After that Betts laid into a 2-1 pitch he smoked for a 3-run shot!

After 7 innings, 6-1 Dodgers

Moving to the Dodgers 6th inning, Sale gave up a lead-off single to Barnes.  Though after that both Dozier and Turner were strikeout victims.  Sale stayed in the face Freese and gave up his 3rd straight Single to him to bring up the tying run.  Right-hander Kelly came in to relieve Sale and face the righty Machado, but lost him to a walk.  With the bases loaded and Chris Taylor due up, LA pinch hit with lefty Max Muncy.  Boston responded by bringing in the lefty Johnson.  The stage was set.  Muncy was over powered and struck out to leave the bases loaded!

After retiring the 9th hitter in the Rays lineup, Kershaw was relieved by the combo of Floro and Jansen closing it out for a convincing 2020 World Series Game 1 winner!

Final Score: Dodgers 6, Rays 1

How it Was Played
We used Baseball Classics 2020 MLB Season Premium Edition Player Cards with Real-Time Pitching, team fielding, and Scorefield game board. It took 71 minutes to complete this World Series Game 1 showdown. This game included 5 pitching changes.

 

[Simulated Results]
Baseball Classics World Series Game 2
Rays at Dodgers

The lineup submitted by the Rays had to remain balanced since the plan for LA was to let Gonsolin pitch only a few innings then turn to their bullpen.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers fielded their usual starters but subbed in the clutch right-handed Kike Hernandez in place of the lefty Joc Pederson.  Find out if the Rays could even up the series or if Los Angeles inserted their domination again!

Play Ball!

The game started close with both starters in control. Gonsolin worked around a 2 out single by the rookie sensation Randy Arozarena, to keep the Rays off the scoreboard. In the bottom of the first, Mookie Betts drew a dreaded lead off walk but was thrown out at 2nd during his steal attempt. 

End of 1, Rays 0 , Dodgers 0

Both teams scored their first runs in the 2nd inning and each added more in the 3rd. Tampa drew first blood by as Manuel Margot laced a lead off double into the right-center gap. Gonsolin proceeded to give up a single to Adames and then the 9th place batter, catcher Mike Zunino struck his own single up the middle for a 2 out RBI, scoring Margot. However, Los Angeles responded quickly as the red hot Cody Bellinger hit a single to left. Next up, AJ Pollock smashed the first homer of the game and just like that LA was up 2-1. 

In the top of the 3rd, the Rays again started with a lead off two-bagger, this time by the previously struggling Brandon Lowe. Margot followed up his previous at bat with another hit, this time a single to drive in the runner. Gonsolin was able to put out the rally with back to back K’s of Wendle and Adames. But the Dodgers were ready to respond again and it was Max Muncy who hit a solo shot off Snell to help his team retake the lead!

End of 3, Rays 2, Dodgers 3

In the top of the 4th LA turned to Luis Urias after Gonsolin gave them three solid innings of work. He kept the Rays off balance and for the next three innings of his own he did not allow Tampa to score. 

In the bottom of the 5th, Los Angeles flexed their power muscles again. After Mookie Betts drew another lead off walk, (his second of a total of 3 walks he’d take) Max Muncy did it again, this time crushing a 2-out, 2-run home run to start to distance LA from Tampa. 

End of 5, Rays 2, Dodgers 5

After Urias shut down the Rays for 3 innings, Dave Roberts turned to the electric Brusdar Graterol to keep the Rays from catching up. He did his job pitching 2 scoreless innings while striking out 2. In the bottom of the 7th the Dodgers scored again, this time it was Diego Castillo offering up a lead off gopher ball to Corey Seager. With LA starting to distance themselves Rays’ manager Kevin Cash brought in one of his righty flamethrowers Nick Anderson. After getting Turner and Muncy to groundout, Will Smith launched his own solo shot and the second home run of the inning!

After 7 innings, 7-2 Dodgers

The Rays had no answer on offense or defense as they could not figure out a way to score another run. In the bottom of the 8th the game got out of hand. Nick Anderson loaded the bases on two walks and a single. With the lefty Corey Seager due up, the Rays turned to fellow southpaw Josh Fleming who gave up a crushing Grand Slam to Seager, cementing the Dodgers’ win!

Final Score: Dodgers 12, Rays 2

How it Was Played
We used Baseball Classics 2020 MLB Season Premium Edition Player Cards with Real-Time Pitching, team fielding, and Scorefield game board. It took about 80 minutes to complete this World Series Game 2 matchup. This game included 6 pitching changes and 3 pinch hitters. 

 

[Simulated Results]
Baseball Classics World Series Game 3
Dodgers at Rays

Differing from Game 1, this time the Rays fielded a strong defensive lineup in hopes to leverage the fundamentals to defeat the powerhouse LA lineup.  No surprises in the Dodger lineup, they are sticking with their usual crew.

Play Ball!

Morton was greeted with back-to-back leadoff singles by Betts and Seager.  Next he enticed Turner to flyout and caught Muncy looking for strike 3 and ended the top half of the 1st inning with Will Smith grounding out.  Buehler fanned Lowe and Arozarena to easily end the inning.

End of 1, No score

Bellinger was caught looking on an 0-2 pitch to start things in the Dodgers 2nd, but Chris Taylor laced a Triple and was driven in by Pederson to put LA ahead 1-0.  The Dodgers loaded the bases, but Morton wiggled out of it.  In the 3rd inning, Muncy lead off with a single on the first pitch and raced to 3rd on another single by his teammate Will Smith.  That turned out to be important as Bellinger hit a deep sacrifice flyout to drive in Muncy who waltzed in after tagging up.  The Rays were nine up, nine down through 3.

End of 3, Dodgers 2, Rays 0

Morton was replaced heading into the 4th inning by Yarbrough.  Moving ahead to the top of the 5th, with 1 out, Taylor and Pederson singled, and Barnes walked.  A wild pitch scored Taylor (his second run of the game) before the rally ended giving the Dodgers a 3-run lead.  The Rays didn’t pick up their first hit until the bottom of the 5th, a leadoff double by Choi.  However, he was left stranded at 3rd to end the 5th.

End of 5, Dodgers 3, Rays 0

Buehler was mowing down Rays striking out at least 1 batter in every inning heading into the bottom of the 9th.  He fanned Lowe leading off the bottom of the 9th by catching him looking.  Though it looked he may go the distance with 2 outs to go and racking up a remarkable 17 Rays batters, Jansen was warming up just in case.  Arozarena roped a single as did Choi to bring the tying run to the plate!  Jansen was indeed brought in to face Manuel Margot.

Margot hit a sharp single and the Rays held Arozarena to be safe.  With the bases loaded, left-handed batter Joey Wendle had a favorable match-up versus the righty Jansen.  Wendle hit a flyball that wasn’t deep enough to bring in the runner from 3rd.  Adames was up and on an 0-2 count watched strike 3 cross the plate to end the game!

Final Score: Dodgers 3, Rays 0

How it Was Played
We used Baseball Classics 2020 MLB Season Premium Edition Player Cards with Real-Time Pitching, team fielding, and next gen Scorecard. It took nearly 2 hours to complete by tracking every pitch.  This game included 4 pitching changes and 1 pinch hitter.

 

[Simulated Results]
Baseball Classics World Series Game 4
Dodgers at Rays

Both lineups featured some power and that would prove to be valuable.  However, this time the lineups dictated by both managers didn’t produce their best glovemen.  This would prove costly in our simulation as the last (turned out to be winning) run of the game score was an unearned run.

Play ball!

In the first 3 innings, the Dodgers went three up, three down.  Yarbrough fanned 4 of the first 9 Dodgers he faced.  In the bottom of the 3rd inning, Zunino hit a single off a 1-0 pitch.  With 2 outs, rookie sensation Randy Arozarena kept things going with a base hit.  Urias escaped the jam by getting ahead of the count on Brosseau 0-2 before getting him to easily flyout.

End of 3, No score

In the top of the 4th, Mookie Betts earned his keep with a leadoff single.  Seager hit into a bang-bang fielder’s choice.  Yarbrough only fell behind 2 batters at this point.  Turner was anxious and popped out on the first pitch he saw.  With two outs Max Muncy stepped up to the plate and also offered at the first pitch too, but his was a long, deep drive over the wall to put Los Angeles on top 2-zip!  Yet, the Rays answered with a home run of their own in the bottom of the 4th by Brandon Lowe!  This solo shot cut the lead in half.

Yarbrough pitch count was only at 38, but he struggled in the 4th surrendering 3 hits and 2 runs.  Fairbanks replaced him to get the final out of the inning by striking out Bellinger after a 1-2 count.  However, Fairbanks came up gimpy after that and had to leave the game due to an injury.  The Rays had to keep this game close, so they went to trustworthy Diego Castillo for the top of the 5th. 

End of 4, Dodgers 2, Rays 1

The top of the 6th looked routine for the Rays as Betts lead off with an easy flyout.  Seager popped nearly straight up the elevator shaft, but Tampa’s catcher bobbled the ball for an error.  With speedy Seager first base, this instantly turned into a dangerous situation for the Rays who desperately need to keep the Dodgers from pushing another run across.  With playoff clutch hitting superstar Justin Turner up, the tension was apparent in the Rays dugout.  The count went even at 2 balls, 2 strikes.  On the next pitch Turner laced a double, Seager was waved home…the play at the plate was close, but due to the weaker fielding of the ball by Margot in left field, Seager was barely safe at the plate!  Fortunately, Castillo retired Muncy and Smith, but that 3rd Dodger unearned run really hurt.  The Rays could not score in their half of the 6th inning.

End of 6, Dodgers 3, Rays 1

Urias was on watch going into the 7th inning.  He had allowed 4 hits, walked no one, and whiffed 3.  His pitch count was only at 70.  Holding onto a 3-1 lead, he was on the mound for the bottom of the 7th facing the lower half of the order.  Adames, Renfroe, and Zunino all struck out to end the Rays 7th.  The Dodgers went down in order in their half of the 8th inning.

Heading into the bottom of the 8th, Dodgers 3, Rays 1

After 85 pitchers, the Dodgers went to their bullpen.  Urias surely did his job well.  Reliever Jake McGee came in.  That’s when the luck for the Rays turned.  Kiermair reached on a 1-base throwing error to first base by Will Smith.  Perhaps Barnes should have been in there as the Dodgers backstop.  With the tying run at the plate in the name of Yandy Diaz, he weakly grounded out, but Kaiermair advanced to second base.  Arozarena walked.  That was enough to bring in Dodgers ace stopper Kenley Jansen.

Jansen threw a wild pitch moving the runners up and a passed ball cost them a run as Kiermair crossed the plate and Arozarena standing on third.  With the tying run 90 feet away and only 1 out, Brosseau and Margot drew plenty of pitches, but neither could get the job done.

End of 8, Dodgers 3, Rays 2

The Dodgers threatened in the top of the 9th getting their first two runners on, but 3 popouts ended any chance to bring an insurance run or two home!

Jansen faced Lowe, who homered earlier in the game, to start the Rays 9th inning.  With superb pitching he struck him out on 3 straight pitches and did the same to Adames.  With home run threat Renfroe up next, the first pitch was a ball.  Renfroe swung away at the next pitch, hoping to launch on into the seats for a dramatic finish, but instead grounded out to end the game.

Final Score: Dodgers 3, Rays 2

(Last roll of the game shown above as Renfroe grounded out with the play fielded cleanly securing the Dodgers Game 4 sweep in the Baseball Classics simulated projection)

How it Was Played
We used Baseball Classics 2020 MLB Season Premium Edition Player Cards with Real-Time Pitching, team fielding, Play Action Simulator, and next gen Scorecard. It took nearly 75 minutes to complete by tracking every pitch.  This game included 5 pitching changes.

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FROM BASEBALL CLASSICS MAGAZINE | OCTOBER ISSUE 2020 | BASEBALLCLASSICS.COM